Today UK Times
Macro policy, growth, inflation, labour and public spending.
A new report from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget argues that deficit reduction is the key to solving America's affordability crisis: with the national debt at $40 trillion, debt-to-GDP near 123%, inflation at 3.4% and the Treasury paying $3 billion a day in interest, stabilising the debt would lift real per-person income growth by 10% over three decades — nearly $36,000 per household versus a high-debt scenario — while a 1.5-point rate decline would save families $5,800 a year on a $500,000 mortgage.
The Resolution Foundation argues Britain's productivity is improving in recent years despite official figures pointing to further deterioration, rejecting both AI-boom and sectoral-reshuffling explanations and suggesting the economy may be emerging from the long shadow of the 2008 financial crisis.
Between March 2024 and September 2026 the Bank of Japan took its policy rate from -0.1% to 1.25% — the highest since 1995 — completing the most significant monetary normalisation by any advanced-economy central bank in three decades. The journey reveals both the genuine achievement of exiting deflation and the structural fragilities that persist: an economy growing at just 1% outside semiconductor booms, a workforce shrinking by 800,000 per year, and a productivity problem that no interest rate can solve.
Oil prices slipped on Thursday after a sharp drop a day earlier, as Saudi Arabia's plan to reroute crude through Oman and hopes of easing Middle East tensions calmed supply concerns. US fuel inventories rose unexpectedly.
Speaking at an economic meeting on 17 September 2026, President Vladimir Putin said Russia's GDP growth would be within 1% for the year, matching budget projections. Inflation stood at 6.2% as of 14 September, down from double-digit 10.3% in Q1 2025. Unemployment remains near historic lows at 2.3%, real wages grew 6.5% in H1 and retail sales rose 5.4% over seven months.
The Chinese yuan edged up at the Moscow Exchange on Thursday morning, with the ruble weakening against the backdrop of oil falling for a second consecutive day. Brent futures traded near $104.8 a barrel, while Russian annual inflation slowed to 6.27% as of September 14, according to Rosstat data.
Russia's central bank paused its easing cycle on 11 September 2026, keeping the key rate at 14% as annual inflation stood at 6.3% and pro-inflationary risks mounted; the next decision is due on 23 October.
The US central bank lifted its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, a unanimous move against stubborn inflation that puts the new chair at odds with the White House.
The Nobel prize-winning economist and University of Chicago professor will take up the role on 1 October, the World Bank said.
Consumer prices rose just 0.02% in the week to 14 September, with annual inflation easing to 6.27%, as the central bank keeps its key rate on hold at 14%.
Fuel became cheaper across a fifth of Russian regions in the week of 8-14 September, with the sharpest drop in Sevastopol, as summer emergency measures begin to take effect.
Saudi Arabia plans to resume pumping oil through the East-West pipeline, shut down last week after drone attacks, to about half of its previous volume within days, Bloomberg reported, citing sources. Saudi Aramco is working to bypass the damaged section, with full restoration expected in about six weeks.
A new IPPR 'local youth opportunity index' shows Rotherham has the fewest suitable job opportunities for young people in Britain, with a sixfold gap versus the Cotswolds and nine of the ten best areas located in the south of England.
University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell 7.5% in September 2026 to 47.8, the second-lowest reading since 1952, as one-year inflation expectations surged to 4.6% on resurgent fuel prices and trade tensions. With August CPI at 3.4% annually, traders saw an above-85% chance of a Fed rate hike within a week — a hawkish turn few anticipated at the start of the year.
Analysts surveyed by the Bank of Russia lowered their 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% from 0.6% and raised the inflation projection to 6.6%, while keeping the average key rate expectation for 2026 at 14.5% per year.
Economists, executives and politicians are fighting over which letter describes the US economy: the K of diverging fortunes, the C of a recovering middle class or the E of three parallel income tracks. With consumer sentiment near record lows, credit card balances at a near-record $1.26 trillion and the Treasury Secretary declaring the K 'over', the alphabet debate reveals an expansion where the aggregate numbers and the household experience no longer agree.
Official figures show the UK remained the fastest-growing G7 economy in the first half of 2026, defying the IMF's spring warning that the Iran war would hit Britain hardest of the advanced nations. But with the Ofgem energy price cap up 13% from July, one-off boosts from hot weather and the World Cup fading, and leaked Treasury forecasts below the OBR's March projection, the resilience faces a severe test in the second half — just as chancellor John Healey prepares his first budget on 28 October.
Volkswagen's Transparent Factory in Dresden has closed while BMW runs its biggest plant in the world from Spartanburg, South Carolina — a contrast that frames the puzzle economists keep debating: why the US economy still grows around 2% a year despite tariffs, deportations and an oil shock. RSM's Joe Brusuelas points to capital expenditure at 13.9% of GDP and a halving of oil's unit contribution to output, while Bruegel's Rebecca Christie sees a cultural tolerance for risk — and warns that 4.2% inflation and deep inequality mark the limits of American resilience.
Between June 2024 and June 2025 the European Central Bank cut its deposit rate eight times, from a record 4% to 2%, as inflation fell from 2.6% to below target. Yet eurozone growth remained anaemic — 0.8% in 2024, a forecast 0.9% in 2025 — with Germany on the brink of recession and US tariffs adding new headwinds. Defence spending promises a medium-term offset, but the easing cycle has exposed the limits of monetary policy alone in an economy constrained by structural divergence, weak investment and demographic decline.
Russia's positive foreign trade surplus fell 8.2% to $139.3 billion in 2025 as exports declined 3.7% to $418.3 billion and imports eased 1.4% to $279.0 billion, Federal Customs Service data show.
Russia's international gold and forex reserves rose by $145.8 billion, or 23.9%, over 2025 to a record $754.9 billion, with higher gold prices accounting for almost 90% of the annual gain and the gold share reaching 43.3%, the highest since March 1995.
Despite the average effective US tariff rising from 2% to 18% in 2025 — the highest since the 1930s — consumer price inflation held at 2.7% and unemployment rose only modestly to 4.6%. Harvard economist Jeffrey Frankel identifies four reasons the damage was limited or delayed: measurement problems from the government shutdown, incomplete implementation of announced tariffs, front-loading of imports that saved $6.5 billion, and corporate absorption of costs. But he warns the full impact is likely to materialise in 2026 as companies stop subsidising margins.
UK CPI inflation fell to 3.2% in November 2025 from 3.6% in October — below the 3.5% forecast and the lowest in eight months — as food prices eased and Black Friday discounts bit. Core inflation cooled to 3.2%, financial markets priced in a more than 90% chance of a quarter-point Bank of England cut from 4%, and the pound fell 0.7% against the dollar.
With a sixth rate cut expected in December 2025, the Bank of England has become the Labour government's most reliable source of economic comfort. But with unemployment at its highest since 2021, growth sluggish and a divided monetary policy committee, the question for 2026 is how many more times Threadneedle Street can come to the chancellor's rescue.
VTB estimates that Russian depositors will receive more than 9.5 trillion rubles in interest income on savings products in 2025, about one and a half times more than a year earlier; PSB forecasts 8.3 trillion rubles and Absolut Bank 10.1 trillion rubles, while tax receipts from deposit income are expected to hit a record 305 billion rubles.
The OBR accidentally published its Budget forecast before Rachel Reeves presented it, revealing that the government's finances were not as bad as feared — and that she could have met her fiscal rules without freezing income tax thresholds until 2031. BBC economics editor Faisal Islam's analysis explains why the chancellor still chose to tax hard: a Budget in two halves, a doubled £22bn fiscal buffer, a year of market instability to forget, and an unspoken bet that growth beats the 1.5% forecast.
Analysts at Renaissance Capital warn of a 'somewhat hard' landing for the Russian economy in 2025: growth of 1% over eight months is expected to slow to 0.8% for the year, and without defence-oriented industries GDP would not grow at all in the fourth quarter. The Bank of Russia, for the first time this year, allowed that annual growth could turn negative in the final quarter, while the ruble's delayed weakening has become the main surprise of the year for forecasters.
The Bank of Russia lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5-1.0% from 1.0-2.0% in the July version of its medium-term outlook, published after the board meeting on October 24, 2025, at which the key rate was cut to 16.5% from 17%. The Q4 2025 GDP estimate was worsened to a range of minus 0.5% to plus 0.5% year-on-year, while forecasts for 2026-2028 were left unchanged.
Rosstat confirmed on 24 September 2025 that Russia's GDP grew 1.1% year on year in the second quarter and 1.2% in the first half, with Q2 output of 49.5 trillion roubles. Hotels and restaurants (+9.2%), finance (+11%) and manufacturing (+3.8%) led growth, while mining, wholesale and retail trade contracted.
Russia's Ministry of Economic Development has cut its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.5% to 1% and for 2026 from 2.4% to 1.3%, embedding the VAT rise to 22%, a near-frozen investment trajectory and gradual ruble weakening into its baseline. Economists see the revised macro-forecast as a consolidated position with the Bank of Russia around one 'red line' - avoiding recession - while doubting the 4% inflation target is attainable.
Advisor to the Bank of Russia governor Kirill Tremasov said the forecast path of the key rate allows it to fall to a single-digit level by the end of 2026, after the regulator cut the rate by 100 basis points to 17% on September 12.
The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for US economic growth in 2025 to 1.9%, 0.1 percentage point above its April estimate, citing lower tariffs than announced on 2 April and softer financial conditions. Growth in 2026 is now seen at 2%, and the July OBBBA fiscal package could add an average of 0.5% to US GDP through 2030.
Ruble payments for Russian exports reached a record 52.3% in April 2025, up 11.9 percentage points year on year, according to Bank of Russia data reviewed by RIA Novosti and published by Prime. Every world region increased its ruble share, with Africa reaching 98.3%, while payments in unfriendly currencies fell to a record low of 14.1%.
Amendments to Russia's 2025 federal budget cut projected oil and gas revenues by 2.6 trillion rubles to 8.32 trillion rubles, or 3.7% of GDP, as the export price forecast for Russian crude was lowered from $69.7 to $56 per barrel and the rouble exchange rate outlook was revised following the sharp oil price drop triggered by announced US protectionist measures in early April.
Russia's Ministry of Economic Development kept its 2025 GDP growth forecast at 2.5% — well above the Bank of Russia's 1.0-2.0% interval and the 1.6% analyst consensus — as it submitted the 2025-2028 scenario conditions to the government in April 2025. The ministry expects inflation of 7.6%, an average ruble rate of 94.3 per dollar, Brent at $68 and Urals at $56 a barrel, with the trade surplus compressing to $86.8 billion. Officials frame the year as a 'managed cooling' toward potential growth rates, not a slide into recession.
Rating agency Expert RA's macroeconomic forecast for 2025, published in April, describes an economy that has traded overheating for an 'overbend' and now faces a fork. Its baseline 'reasonable sufficiency' scenario sees inflation slowing to 6.5-7%, the key rate declining to 18-19% by December and GDP growing around 1.5%, while the 'additional shock' scenario keeps the rate at 21% with growth close to zero. Construction is identified as the epicentre of the slowdown, the ruble is forecast to average 96 per dollar for the year and to breach 100 in the fourth quarter.
Russia's economy expanded by 4.1% in 2024 according to Rosstat's first preliminary estimate, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin told President Vladimir Putin, beating the official forecast by 0.2 percentage points. Nominal GDP hit a record 200 trillion roubles, December growth reached 4.5%, and the 2023 figure was revised up to 4.1%. For 2025, the central bank expects only 0.5-1.5% growth as authorities target balanced expansion and lower inflation.
Russia's industrial output grew 4.6% in 2024, the strongest result in thirteen years outside the post-pandemic rebound, according to Rosstat data published on 5 February 2025. Manufacturing led the charge with 8.5% growth, driven not only by defence-related orders but also by consumer-facing industries such as furniture, clothing, food and beverages. Yet economists warn that capacity constraints, personnel shortages and cooling consumer demand point to a sharp slowdown in 2025.
In January 2025 Russians posted 30% more resumes than a year earlier while vacancies fell 8%. With unemployment at a record-low 2.3%, companies are freezing hiring and wage growth is set to slow — the labour market moves from overheating to balance.
Banks in Russia earned a record 3.8 trillion roubles of net profit in 2024, up from the previous record of 3.3 trillion roubles in 2023, according to the Bank of Russia's sector review. December profit fell 2.8 times to 187 billion roubles as currency revaluation, year-end costs and impairments weighed on results, while the capital buffer grew to about 7 trillion roubles and the regulator forecast 2025 profit of 2.7–3.2 trillion roubles.
Russian LNG exports increased by 4% in 2024 to approximately 47.2 billion cubic metres (around 33 million tonnes), Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said, as the country redirected energy flows from pipeline gas to liquefied natural gas amid the loss of the European market. The growth was driven by the Novatek-led Arctic LNG and Yamal projects.
Russia retained its status as China's top oil supplier in 2024, setting a new record of 108.47 million tonnes (2.19 million bpd) worth $60.2 billion, according to China's General Administration of Customs. Saudi Arabia remained second but saw shipments fall 8.5% to 78.64 million tonnes, while Malaysia rose to third with a 28.4% jump to 70.33 million tonnes as a transit hub for Iranian and Venezuelan crude.
Russia exported 83.5 million tonnes of grain and grain products in 2024, 4% more than in 2023, according to Rosselkhoznadzor data from the Argus-Phyto system. China entered the top five buyers for the first time, with spring wheat shipments doubling and barley rising 43%. Main buyers remained Middle East, African and Asian countries, with the strongest growth from Vietnam, Nigeria, Morocco and Sri Lanka.
Annual inflation in Russia will peak in April 2025 before declining actively, the Bank of Russia's monetary policy director Andrey Gangan said, estimating 2024 price growth at no more than 9.8% against the October forecast of 8-8.5%. Economists see about 10% in the first quarter of 2025 and no February rate cut, while the antitrust regulator dismissed media claims of a 10-20% gasoline price surge linked to Transneft's 5.8% tariff indexation.
The Bank of Russia kept its key rate at 21% on 20 December 2024, surprising markets that had largely priced in a 200-basis-point hike to 23%, and forecast annual inflation returning to the 4% target in 2026.
ONS figures published on 15 November 2024 showed the UK economy growing by just 0.1% in the third quarter, down from 0.5% in the second, with monthly GDP shrinking 0.1% in September. The UK ranked sixth in the G7, behind France, Germany and the US, as budget uncertainty and a 4.75% base rate weighed on spending, while business investment rose 4.5% year on year.
Analysts at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMACP) warned that the Bank of Russia's high key rate and the prospect of further hikes create risks of recession and a slide into stagflation, saying the rate must fall to roughly 15-16% by mid-2025 to avoid negative annual GDP growth. The central bank disagrees, arguing that hikes are precisely what prevents stagflation.
New jobs, record markets and falling inflation have made the US economy 'the envy of the world', yet a Guardian survey found many households still feel priced out by the cost of living.
Russia's Ministry of Economic Development sees signs that the economy has begun to cool and will closely analyse fourth-quarter data, but for now keeps its 2025 GDP growth forecast at 2.5%, Economy Minister Maksim Reshetnikov said on 30 October 2024 at a business forum in Tanzania. The ministry raised its 2024 forecast to 3.9% in September, while the Bank of Russia, having lifted the key rate from 19% to 21%, sees 2025 growth of just 0.5-1.5%.
On 25 October 2024 the Bank of Russia raised its key rate by 200 basis points to 21%, the third consecutive hike, and kept a hawkish signal that points to a further increase in December. The regulator doubled its 2024 inflation forecast to 8-8.5% from the mid-year range of 4.3-4.8%, acknowledged a communication mistake that fuelled credit demand, and pushed the expected return of inflation to target to the first half of 2026. Analysts now see the rate peaking at 22-23% before any cuts begin in 2025.
The IMF says the battle against inflation is 'almost won', with global headline inflation seen falling from 5.8% in 2024 to 3.5% by the end of 2025. Yet growth stays 'stable yet underwhelming' at 3.2%, and downside risks — market volatility, geopolitics, commodity prices and a stubborn services sector — now dominate the outlook.
Headline inflation in the United States is drifting back toward the Federal Reserve's 2% target, yet the cumulative price increases since 2021, stubborn services and housing costs, and rising household debt mean the cost-of-living squeeze is far from over.
The US economy expanded at an annualised rate of just 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024, far below forecasts, while inflation accelerated to 3.4%, complicating the Federal Reserve's path to interest rate cuts.
The Bank of Japan raised short-term rates from -0.1% to around 0-0.1% — its first hike since 2007 — scrapped yield curve control and stopped buying ETFs, ending the world's only negative rates regime in place since 2016. Governor Kazuo Ueda says the virtuous wage-price cycle is taking hold after spring negotiations delivered a 3.7% base-pay rise, but promises accommodative conditions will be maintained as the yen slides beyond 150 to the dollar.
The January survey by the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy found that 47% of Russian industrial enterprises are short of staff — the highest reading since the polls began in 1996. The previous peak, recorded in July 2023, was later revised to 45%, while in October only 39% of plants reported shortages. Economists at the Russian Academy of Sciences put the 2023 labour deficit at 4.8 million people, the central bank calls the workforce shortage the main problem of the economy, and 85% of employers expect it to persist through 2024.
The mood at Davos in January 2024 was 'not bad, but not great'. Behind that verdict lies a deeper shift: after the pandemic, supply-chain bottlenecks, an inflation surge and war in Europe, the global economy is moving from frictionless free trade towards 'glocalisation' — shorter supply chains, rebuilt domestic manufacturing and a more strategic role for the state, with industrial policy no longer a dirty word.
A new IMF analysis finds artificial intelligence is set to affect nearly 40% of all jobs globally — around 60% in advanced economies and 26% in low-income countries. Managing director Kristalina Georgieva warns that in most scenarios AI will likely worsen overall inequality, and urges comprehensive social safety nets and retraining programmes so the AI transition becomes more inclusive.
The UK housing market enters 2024 bruised but stabilising: prices fell 1.8% in 2023, far less than the 5–12% declines once feared, and lenders expect a second, milder year of falls of up to 4% before a recovery in 2025. This analysis unpacks what the forecasts from Savills, Nationwide, Halifax, Knight Frank and others really mean for buyers, the 1.5 million households rolling off fixed-rate mortgages, and the wider economy.