Russia's GDP Grew 4.1% in 2024, Reaching a Record 200 Trillion Roubles

Moscow, February 7. INTERFAX.RU — Russia's gross domestic product grew by 4.1% in 2024, according to the first preliminary estimate published by the state statistics service Rosstat, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said on Friday at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin. The estimate exceeded the official forecast by 0.2 percentage points, came in above expectations, and the nominal size of the economy reached a historic high of 200 trillion roubles.

"Rosstat has presented its first estimate, and under it the Russian gross domestic product grew by 4.1%, that is 0.2 percentage points more than what was in the official forecast. That is above expectations. In December, moreover, we reached growth figures of 4.5%," the head of the government said. According to Mishustin, Rosstat also revised the data for the three previous years: the third estimate of GDP for 2023 showed growth of half a percentage point higher — not 3.6% but 4.1%.

The results for 2024 are "good," and the task for the current year is to move onto a trajectory of balanced growth and achieve a reduction in inflation, Putin said in turn. The president recalled that during the fight against the consequences of the coronavirus epidemic the government "worked very much and effectively sector by sector," and said that this practice should be restored: according to him, it is necessary to understand the prospects of individual sectors and priorities and to provide effective support in the directions where it is needed.

What awaits the economy in 2025

The head of state stressed that one of the most important directions is the development of the supply-side economy: "We need to change the structure of this growth." In Putin's words, it is important to create new enterprises and new jobs everywhere, in all regions of the country, and work at these enterprises must be based on modern principles of management and on a new technological base — with the use of robotics, artificial intelligence and other achievements. "As we agreed, I am waiting from the government for a plan of measures to advance structural changes in the economy," the president said, expressing confidence that on this basis it will be possible to achieve both balanced growth and the quality of this growth in the near and medium term.

Rosstat's estimate turned out to be above all official and consensus benchmarks. As reported, the central bank's forecast for Russia's GDP growth in 2024 was 3.5-4.0%, the economy ministry's forecast was 3.9%, and the consensus forecast of analysts polled by Interfax at the end of December implied growth of 3.9%.

The outlook for 2025 is markedly more modest:

• the Bank of Russia's forecast is growth of 0.5-1.5%;
• the government's expectations, voiced by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak at the end of December, are 2.0-2.5%;
• analysts' consensus is an increase in GDP of 1.5%.

Thus, after a record 2024, the Russian economy is expected by the regulator and experts to slow down substantially, and the key task for the authorities will be the transition to balanced growth while bringing inflation down. Source: Interfax.