Today UK Times
International trade, geopolitics and cross-border business.
Japan's economy grew just 1.0% in 2025, halving from 2.0% the previous year, yet semiconductor output surged 13.2% and chips contributed nearly a full percentage point to export growth. The divergence between a booming chip sector and contracting non-chip manufacturing — what commentators call the 'silicon trap' — raises fundamental questions about the sustainability of Japan's growth model as the Bank of Japan normalises policy and demographics continue to bite.
South Korea's real GDP grew just 1.0% in 2025, halving from 2.0% the previous year, as a construction slump and weak facility investment dragged the economy down despite a 13.2% surge in semiconductor output. The fourth quarter contracted 0.2%, capping a volatile year in which exports grew 4.2% led by chip demand, according to Bank of Korea data reported by The Korea Herald.
Stocks slid across Asia, Europe and the US after the president crushed hopes that 'reciprocal tariffs' would spare most trading partners, sending investors into safe havens.
China's economy grew 5% in 2024, meeting Beijing's official target, as strong exports and a late-year stimulus package provided the final push, according to data reported by the South China Morning Post. The property sector continued to contract, falling to 6.3% of GDP from 6.8% the previous year, while manufacturing and external trade carried the burden of growth.
One in four developing countries will end 2024 poorer than on the eve of the pandemic in 2019, according to World Bank data cited in a year-end analysis by BFM.ru. The income gap between developing and advanced economies widened in nearly half of developing nations during 2020-2024 — the highest share since the 1990s — reversing half a century of convergence driven largely by China's rise. With per-capita income growth projected at just 3% through 2026 against 3.8% in the pre-pandemic decade, the question is whether India can replace China as the engine of global poverty reduction.
Global trade reached a record $33 trillion in 2024, up $1 trillion from 2023, according to UNCTAD data, while the World Bank projected global GDP growth of 2.6% — stable but well below the 3.1% average of the pre-pandemic decade. Services trade drove half the increase with 7% growth.
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