World Trade Hits Record $33 Trillion in 2024 as Global Growth Stabilises Below Pre-Pandemic Pace

Global trade reached a record $33 trillion in 2024, an increase of $1 trillion over the previous year, according to data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) cited in a year-end review published by BFM.ru on 31 December 2024. Services trade contributed roughly half the increase, growing by 7%, while goods trade rose 2% but did not surpass the record set in 2022.

Global growth stabilises below pre-pandemic pace

The World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report projected global GDP growth of 2.6% in 2024, stabilising for the first time in three years but at a level well below the 3.1% average recorded during the 2010–2019 decade. Growth is expected to edge up to an average of 2.7% in 2025–2026, still short of pre-pandemic norms. Countries accounting for more than 80% of the world's population and GDP will continue to grow slower than they did in the decade before COVID-19.

• Developing economies: average annual growth of about 4% in 2024–2025, slightly below 2023.
• Advanced economies: 1.5% growth in 2024, with Germany hovering near zero.
• Low-income countries: growth accelerating to 5% in 2024, up from 3.8% in 2023.
• China: 4.8% growth projected for 2024 by the World Bank.
• United States: 2.0% growth projected by the Federal Reserve.

Inequality widens for the first time in decades

Despite the trade record, the World Bank warned that one in four developing countries will still be poorer at the end of 2024 than on the eve of the pandemic in 2019. In fragile and conflict-affected states, that proportion doubles. The income gap between developing and advanced economies widened in nearly half of developing countries during 2020–2024 — the highest share since the 1990s. Per-capita income growth in those countries is projected at just 3% through 2026, compared with 3.8% in the pre-pandemic decade.

Global inflation is easing: the World Bank expects it to slow to 3.5% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025, although the disinflation is less pronounced than forecast at the start of the year. For half a century the world steadily reduced inequality and poverty, driven largely by China's rise; with Chinese income growth slowing, hopes now rest on India, whose scale and population give it the potential to move global numbers.

Russia fits the developing-country pattern

The Bank of Russia's October medium-term forecast kept its 2024 GDP growth estimate at 3.5–4%, while the Ministry of Economic Development projected 3.9%. Inflation, however, accelerated to approximately 10% by official estimates, and the key rate ended the year at a record 21% — the highest since the start of the century, compared with a historic low of 5.5%. Sanctions against the Moscow Exchange halted dollar and euro trading, with official rates now set through over-the-counter deals. Secondary sanctions against partner-country companies prompted Russia to legalise cryptocurrency settlements in foreign trade during 2024.