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China Logs 5% GDP Growth in 2024 as Exports and Late-Year Stimulus Deliver Target

China's economy grew 5% in 2024, meeting Beijing's official target, as strong exports and a late-year stimulus package provided the final push, according to data reported by the South China Morning Post. The property sector continued to contract, falling to 6.3% of GDP from 6.8% the previous year, while manufacturing and external trade carried the burden of growth.

Stylised ascending growth bars reflecting China's achievement of its 5% GDP growth target in 2024 despite structural headwinds
Stylised ascending growth bars reflecting China's achievement of its 5% GDP growth target in 2024 despite structural headwinds
Wire itemWorld

China's economy expanded by 5% in 2024, meeting the official government target of "around 5 per cent", as robust export performance and a package of stimulus measures announced in the final quarter delivered the necessary momentum, the South China Morning Post reported. The result marked a stabilisation after years of post-pandemic adjustment, though the composition of growth revealed deep structural imbalances that are likely to persist into 2025 and beyond.

Key data points

Stylised residential construction composition with stalled cranes, reflecting the persistent property sector contraction that weighed on China
Property drag: the sector fell to 6.3% of GDP as the housing crisis entered its fourth year

The property drag

The most significant structural headwind remained the property sector, which has been in crisis since 2021 when developer Evergrande defaulted. In 2024 the sector's share of national output fell to 6.3% from 6.8%, and property investment declined by double digits. Even China's economic powerhouse Guangdong province, home to Shenzhen and Guangzhou, saw growth slow to just 3.4% as the property crisis bit into construction, land sales and related services.

Exports and stimulus carry the load

With domestic consumption subdued and property investment falling, exports became the primary driver of growth. Chinese manufacturers benefited from competitive pricing, a weak yuan and strong demand from emerging markets. The government also deployed a stimulus package in the final quarter targeting local government debt risks and the struggling property sector, including measures to allow local authorities to issue special bonds for land purchases and to reduce mortgage rates for existing homeowners.

The International Monetary Fund maintained its estimate for China's 2024 growth despite the property troubles, noting that the $18 trillion economy remained stable overall. However, economists warned of the "4 Ds" facing China — debt, deflation, de-risking by Western trading partners, and demographics — as structural challenges that the 5% headline figure does not fully capture.

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