Rosstat Confirms Russian GDP Growth of 1.1% in Q2 2025 as Economy Cools Sharply from Prior Year
Rosstat confirmed on 24 September 2025 that Russia's GDP grew 1.1% year on year in the second quarter and 1.2% in the first half, with Q2 output of 49.5 trillion roubles. Hotels and restaurants (+9.2%), finance (+11%) and manufacturing (+3.8%) led growth, while mining, wholesale and retail trade contracted.
Rosstat confirmed on 24 September 2025 that Russia's gross domestic product grew 1.1% year on year in the second quarter of 2025, matching the preliminary estimate published in August. Growth in the first half of the year came in at 1.2%, RIA Novosti reported. The figures represent a sharp deceleration from the 4.3% full-year growth recorded in 2024.
Key figures
- Q2 2025 GDP in current prices: 49.516 trillion roubles
- Physical volume index vs Q2 2024: 101.1%
- Physical volume index vs Q1 2025: 106.5%
- GDP deflator Q2 2025 / Q2 2024: 103.6%
- H1 2025 GDP in current prices: 97,263.6 billion roubles
- H1 2025 physical volume index vs H1 2024: 101.2%
Sector breakdown
Rosstat said the strongest contributions to GDP growth came from gross value added in hotels and restaurants (+9.2%), manufacturing (+3.8%) and construction (+2.7%). Finance and insurance expanded by 11%, information and communications by 3.5%, and culture and sport by 1.6%.
Several sectors contracted: water supply, sewage and waste management; wholesale and retail trade; and mining. The decline in extraction reflects both OPEC+ production limits and sanctions pressure on energy exports, while the trade contraction points to weakening consumer demand as high interest rates bite.
Context
The 1.1% Q2 growth rate confirms the economy's transition from the overheated expansion of 2023–2024 to a much slower trajectory driven by the Bank of Russia's tight monetary policy. The central bank raised its key rate to a record 21% in late 2024 before beginning a series of cuts in 2025, but the lagged effect of high borrowing costs continues to suppress investment and consumer spending. Full-year 2025 GDP growth is expected to come in at approximately 1%, compared with the revised 4.3% recorded in 2024 — one of the sharpest year-on-year decelerations in recent Russian economic history. The services-led composition of what growth remains, with hotels, restaurants and finance outpacing the broader economy, suggests that domestic consumption is holding up better than goods-producing sectors, but not enough to offset the drag from mining, trade and heavy industry.
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