Putin Expects Russia's GDP Growth Within 1% in 2026 as Inflation Eases to 6.2%

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on 17 September 2026 that the country's GDP growth would be within 1% for the full year, matching the projections laid out in the budget planning documents, Interfax reported. Speaking at a meeting on economic issues, Putin described the dynamics as broadly in line with expectations and pointed to a stable labour market and gradually declining inflation.

Key indicators cited

• GDP growth for January–July 2026: 0.6% (Economy Ministry estimate)
• Full-year 2026 GDP forecast: within 1%
• Inflation as of 14 September: 6.2%, down from 10.3% in Q1 2025
• Unemployment in July: 2.3%, near historic lows
• Real wages in H1 2026: +6.5%
• Retail sales over seven months: +5.4%

Forecast divergence

The Economy Ministry in May lowered its 2026 GDP forecast to 0.4% from 1.3% in the September 2025 version, but at the Eastern Economic Forum in early September Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said the ministry now expects 0.6% growth. The Bank of Russia in July cut its 2026 forecast to 0.0–1.0% from 0.5–1.5%. Analysts polled by Interfax in early September project 0.5% GDP growth for 2026.

Putin's assessment

"Domestic companies and enterprises are operating steadily. This is visible in the labour market, where unemployment is near historic lows at 2.3%," Putin said. "Wages are growing: plus 6.5% in real terms for the first half. The stable labour market and rising household incomes are reflected in consumer demand. Retail sales over seven months of this year grew by 5.4%."

On inflation, the president noted: "Inflation is broadly under control. Starting from the second quarter of last year, it has been gradually declining. As of 14 September, inflation stood at 6.2%. That is noticeably below last year's level. And in Q1 2025, inflation was double-digit — 10.3%. So the efforts undertaken by both the Central Bank and the government are clearly producing results." The Russian economy thus faces a period of modest growth with disinflation continuing but remaining above the 4% target.