Russian Inflation Slows to 6.27% as Weekly Price Growth Cools

Consumer prices in Russia rose by just 0.02% in the week of 8-14 September, after an increase of 0.05% the previous week, the statistics service Rosstat said. Annual inflation slowed to 6.27% as of 14 September, down from 6.33% at the end of August, according to the weekly-based methodology used by the central bank.

Weekly and annual dynamics

Since the start of the month, prices have risen by 0.07%, and by 4.74% since the start of the year. The economy ministry, which uses a different daily-average method, put annual inflation at 6.24%. The latest week followed three consecutive weeks of falling prices in August, underscoring a gradual cooling after a period of higher inflation earlier in the year.

Food, fuel and services

Fruit and vegetable prices fell 1.0% over the week, with cabbage down 3.4% and potatoes down 3.1%, though tomatoes rose 1.5%. Chicken eggs climbed 2.5%, while smartphones, televisions and shampoo each rose 0.8%. Petrol prices increased 0.36% on the week and are up 21.04% since the start of the year, while diesel fell 0.33%. The average cost of trips to Russia's Black Sea coast dropped 6.4%.

Key rate on hold

The central bank held its key rate at 14% at its 11 September meeting, after ten consecutive cuts, pausing an easing cycle that began from 21% in June of last year. The bank cited rising pro-inflationary risks and kept a neutral signal, saying future decisions will depend on inflation dynamics, inflation expectations and internal and external risks. The central bank confirmed its 2026 inflation forecast of 6-7%, while a consensus forecast of economists stands at 6.8%.

• Weekly inflation of 0.02% in the week to 14 September
• Annual inflation slowed to 6.27% from 6.33% at end-August
• Prices up 4.74% since the start of the year
• Key rate held at 14% after ten consecutive cuts
• Central bank 2026 inflation forecast of 6-7%; consensus at 6.8%

Why it matters

The continued cooling gives the central bank room to consider further easing, but the pause in the cutting cycle signals caution about pro-inflationary risks. For households and businesses, the path of the key rate will shape borrowing costs, while the still-elevated annual rate keeps pressure on real incomes.