IMF Lifts 2025 US Growth Forecast to 1.9% as Tariff Pressure Eases

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for growth in the United States economy in 2025 to 1.9%, according to the updated World Economic Outlook report published on Tuesday, 29 July 2025. The new estimate is 0.1 percentage point higher than the Fund's April projection — a modest but notable improvement in how the IMF views the near-term trajectory of the US economy.

The revision reflects two developments that have unfolded since the spring forecast round. "In light of the lowering of tariffs compared with those announced on 2 April and the easing of financial conditions, the US economy is expected to grow by 1.9% in 2025. This is 0.1 percentage point above the April forecast," the report states. In other words, the trade-policy shock that dominated the Fund's earlier assessment has proven less severe than initially feared, while financial conditions have become more supportive of economic activity.

A stronger 2026 outlook on fiscal support

The Fund also improved its view of the following year. US growth in 2026 is now projected at 2%, which is 0.3 percentage point above the April estimate — a larger upward revision than for 2025. The IMF attributes the improvement to the temporary stimulating effect of the law on reducing government spending (OBBBA), adopted in July, including through tax incentives for corporate investment.

"According to the Fund's experts, the OBBBA package could increase the volume of US GDP by an average of 0.5% over the entire WEO forecast horizon through 2030, compared with the baseline scenario without this fiscal measure," the document says. That framing matters: the Fund treats the package as a time-limited impulse to output rather than a permanent lift to the economy's growth potential.

What the numbers mean in context

• 2024: the US economy grew by 2.8%, according to IMF estimates — the benchmark against which the current slowdown is measured.
• 2025: growth is now seen at 1.9%, revised up by 0.1 percentage point from April, as tariffs were reduced relative to the 2 April announcements and financial conditions eased.
• 2026: growth is projected at 2%, revised up by 0.3 percentage point, supported by the temporary stimulus from the OBBBA package.
• Through 2030: OBBBA could add an average of 0.5% to the volume of US GDP over the entire forecast horizon compared with a baseline without the measure.

Taken together, the projections describe an economy that is slowing from the 2.8% pace of 2024 but stabilising around the 2% mark, with the path of tariffs and the July fiscal package now the two decisive swing factors in the Fund's US outlook. The updated World Economic Outlook was published on Tuesday; the previous US estimates that it replaces date from April.

Source: Prime (1prime.ru)