Russia Cuts 2025 Oil and Gas Budget Revenue Forecast by 24%

Amendments to Russia's federal budget for 2025, published in the parliamentary electronic database under bill No. 914318-8, cut projected oil and gas revenues by 2 trillion 619 billion 24 million rubles compared with the originally approved budget law (419-FZ). Oil and gas receipts are now expected to total 8 trillion 317 billion 421 million rubles, equivalent to 3.7% of GDP — roughly 24% below the initial forecast.

The explanatory note to the amendments attributes the downgrade primarily to weaker conditions on global commodity markets in January–April 2025. The announcement of US protectionist measures in early April triggered a sharp fall in oil prices, and against the backdrop of realized and remaining geopolitical risks, the trajectory for the export price of Russian crude was lowered from $69.7 per barrel to $56 per barrel for the full year. The rouble exchange rate forecast was revised accordingly.

Breakdown by tax

The revision runs through every major oil and gas levy:

• Mineral extraction tax (MET) on oil: down 29.5%, from 10.68 trillion to 7.53 trillion rubles, partly due to a larger tax deduction for producers operating in Krasnoyarsk Krai (177 billion rubles in total) and the extension of the special 'new offshore field' tax regime (87 billion rubles);
• Additional income tax (NDD): down 33%, from 1.88 trillion to 1.26 trillion rubles, reflecting changes in oil prices, output volumes, the dollar rate and the actual structure of production;
• MET on natural gas: revised from 1 trillion to 907 billion rubles (−9.96%); on gas condensate — from 834.6 billion to 670.7 billion rubles (−19.6%);
• Customs duties on natural gas: lower by 57 billion rubles, with total gas revenues cut by 9.4%.

Some lines were revised upward. The forecast for export duties on oil-derived goods rose from zero to 1.4 billion rubles, linked to actual payments of duties on liquefied hydrocarbons and barrier duties. Excise on crude oil sent for refining is set to grow by 1.47 trillion rubles following adjustments to the damper compensation based on Rotterdam market prices for oil and petroleum products. Cancelling the MET deduction on gas condensate when producing a wide fraction of light hydrocarbons will add 40.9 billion rubles to the budget.

Gas and weather

Gas consumption and output depend directly on weather conditions, above all in winter. According to the System Operator of the Unified Energy System, the average temperature across Russia during the 2024/25 heating season was 2.5 degrees Celsius above the climatic norm and above the previous 2023/24 season. Under the influence of the warm weather, gas production in the first quarter of 2025 fell by 11 billion cubic metres.

The budget rule as a buffer

The explanatory note stresses that the bulk of the reduction — 2.4 trillion rubles — stems from factors unrelated to legislative changes, first of all the revised forecasts for exchange-traded prices and the US dollar rate. The impact of the shortfall on the balance of the federal budget is said to be neutralized by the budget rule, under which fluctuations in oil and gas revenues are absorbed through operations of the National Wealth Fund.