Analysts Cut Russia's 2026 GDP Growth Forecast to 0.5%

Analysts polled by the Bank of Russia lowered their forecast for GDP growth in 2026 to 0.5% from 0.6% and kept the average key rate projection at 14.5% per year, according to the regulator's materials reported by RIA Novosti on 2 September 2026.

Growth and key rate projections

"GDP growth forecasts for 2026-2027 were lowered by 0.1 percentage point to 0.5% and 1.2% respectively. Forecasts for the subsequent years did not change - 1.7% in 2028 and 1.8% in 2029," the central bank's macroeconomic survey says. The median estimate of long-term growth rates was also raised by 0.1 percentage point to 1.8%. On the analysts' projections, GDP in 2029 will be 14.5% higher than in 2021, an average pace of 1.8% per year.

Key rate forecasts barely moved: 14.5% per year on average in 2026, which implies an average of 13.7% for the remainder of the year, 12.4% in 2027 (up 0.2 percentage point) and 10% in 2028. The forecast at the end of the horizon, 8.6% per year, remains above the median estimate of the neutral key rate of 8%. The real key rate implied by the analysts' projections stands at 7.9% in 2026 (down 0.4 percentage point), 7.6% in 2027, 5.8% in 2028 and 4.5% in 2029.

Inflation, labour market and the ruble

At the same time, analysts raised their 2026 inflation forecast to 6.6%, up 0.4 percentage point from the July survey. They expect price growth to slow to 4.6% in 2027 and to stay near the target in 2028-2029. Unemployment projections were left unchanged: the analysts expect an average of 2.2% in 2026, rising to 2.5% in 2027, 2.7% in 2028 and 2.8% in 2029 - still significantly below the levels of 2021 (4.8%) and 2023 (3.2%).

For the ruble-dollar exchange rate, analysts expect a weaker ruble across the whole horizon, by 1.4-2.5% compared with the July survey. The projection for 2026 is 79.9 rubles per dollar, implying an average of 84.9 rubles in September-December 2026, followed by 88.8 rubles in 2027, 94 rubles in 2028 and 97.2 rubles in 2029. The oil price used for taxation remained largely unchanged: 64 dollars per barrel in 2026, implying an average of 59 dollars for the rest of the year, falling to 56 dollars in 2027 and holding at that level to the end of the horizon.

The regular survey of the Bank of Russia collects consolidated expectations of analysts on the trajectory of monetary policy and macroeconomic indicators of Russia, and this round points to slower growth this year and next alongside stickier inflation, while the labour market is still seen as tight by historical standards.

• 2026 GDP growth forecast cut to 0.5% from 0.6%; 2027 lowered to 1.2%
• 2028 and 2029 growth projections unchanged at 1.7% and 1.8%
• Average key rate seen at 14.5% in 2026, 12.4% in 2027 and 10% in 2028
• Inflation forecast for 2026 raised by 0.4 percentage point to 6.6%, slowing to 4.6% in 2027
• Unemployment expected at 2.2% in 2026, up to 2.8% by 2029
• Ruble seen weaker across the horizon: 79.9 per dollar in 2026 and 97.2 in 2029
• Taxation oil price of 64 dollars per barrel in 2026, dropping to 56 dollars from 2027